Every El Niño season comes with a familiar shortlist of expected impacts: atmospheric rivers, more active typhoon seasons, and elevated drought and fire risk in certain regions. That shortlist is reasonable; plenty of El Niño seasons follow it closely. But a seasonal forecast describes the odds across an entire season, not a guarantee for every storm that forms.
The record is full of exceptions. Within the Atlantic hurricane basin alone, several storms have broken from the "quiet El Niño season" script: Hurricane Danny set Alabama's state rainfall record in 1997, and the sluggish start to the otherwise quiet 1992 season did nothing to soften the devastation of Hurricane Andrew. That is the reasoning behind "it only takes one," and the same logic extends well beyond hurricanes. Hearing "El Niño means it's dry here" doesn't mean it will be dry every single week.
ICEYE's 2026 El Niño Scoreboard
1) ICEYE has observed 743 global floods in 2026 (as of September 3) compared to 312 at this time last year.
2) Countries with a flood season that was out of cycle this year:
Chile
Argentina
Brazil
3) 2026 Floods analyzed in regions the seasonal outlook called drier than average:
Eastern Coast of New Zealand, July 2026
Five separate events across western and central India, June - August 2026
Think of it the way you'd think of a weekly forecast that calls for thunderstorms every day: a few hours of clear skies in between don't invalidate the forecast, they're just a matter of scale. Some events run directly counter to what El Niño (or La Niña) would suggest, and those are the ones that catch people off guard, especially if "typical" expectations have lowered their guard.
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) describes the fluctuation of Pacific Ocean temperatures: warmer water shifts eastward during El Niño, cooler water during La Niña. Because thunderstorm development depends on warm, moist air, these shifts determine where storms are more or less likely to form. From a single community's point of view, El Niño might look like it removed storm activity altogether; from a global view, that activity has simply moved elsewhere.
El Niño and La Niña are the best known of these climate drivers, helped along by memorable names, and ENSO's scale (driven by the sheer size of the Pacific) makes it one of the largest influences on global climate. But global reach isn't the same as total control. Other drivers shape the picture too.
Two of the better known are the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A less familiar but genuinely global driver is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving pulse of tropical storm activity that circles the globe roughly every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO boosts storm activity in a region that would "typically" run dry during El Niño, it's easy to see how expectations can be upended in a matter of days. That's why short-term forecasts and ongoing observation still matter, even in a season with a strong seasonal signal.
Pictured above: A fast-moving wildfire swept through Derveni, Greece, on July 23, 2026, amid extreme heat and drought.
Given how often outlier events show up during El Niño seasons, it's worth staying prepared for what could arrive, even against a "typical" backdrop. Risk doesn't have an off switch during El Niño; it shifts geographically, which is exactly why persistent monitoring matters regardless of the season.
Asia: Monsoon activity across South, Southeast, and East Asia continues even when background conditions trend drier. Thailand has already seen repeated river flooding this season. In Oceania, Australia tends to run drier during El Niño, which could lead to similar damages to the wildfire outbreak that hit Victoria back in January.
South America: Winter in the Southern Hemisphere is usually associated with colder, drier conditions, but El Niño flips that pattern across parts of South America. Chile tends to see more atmospheric rivers, while a favorable storm track often brings flooding to northern Argentina and southern Brazil. Chile has already experienced catastrophic flooding this season, well before El Niño reaches its peak.
Europe: This year, Spain and Portugal saw an unusual amount of flooding in March. However, El Niño's signal here is less direct, working mainly through jet stream changes across the Pacific and North America that are expected to funnel warmer, wetter weather into Europe. Given the severe drought conditions across much of the continent in 2026, that shift would likely be welcome, provided it doesn't arrive all at once. Winter snowfall overall is likely to run below average, though mountain regions could still see abundant, beneficial snow.
North America: The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs quieter during El Niño, but recent strong storms like Michael (2018) and Idalia (2023) prove that "quieter" doesn't mean "safe." Along the western coasts of the US and Canada, El Niño-driven atmospheric rivers have contributed to some of the wettest and snowiest seasons on record.
We're only at the start of what could become a record-setting El Niño, and El Niño seasons play out over months, not days. The expectations described above are exactly that: expectations. Real-time forecasting and observation are what keep you informed as events actually unfold, especially as a changing climate adds more variability in both location and magnitude.
Persistent monitoring is what turns a seasonal outlook into an actionable forecast, particularly before a disaster hits. At ICEYE, our 24/7 Solutions monitoring team uses our world-class satellite constellation to see what a seasonal forecast can't: the disaster in progress, and through the clouds, smoke, or darkness that would otherwise stand between you and the insights driving your response. El Niño can tell you where to start looking. Persistent, global monitoring is what tells you what's actually happening.