ICEYE Intelligence report
Baltic Sea Overwatch: October 2026
A satellite-based assessment of force posture, maritime activity, and critical infrastructure risk across the Baltic Sea region, drawing on SAR imagery, AIS data, and open-source reporting.
- Assessment of Russian and Belarusian force posture in Karelia, Belarus, and the Kaliningrad exclave, and its relationship to observed activity along the Baltic coastline.
- Site-level analysis, including the Rybka Garrison near Petrozavodsk: ground cleared by April 2025, military vehicles present by October 2025.
- Analysis of sub-threshold activity, including cable faults, GNSS disruption, and vessel loitering near critical infrastructure, and the conditions under which these indicate reconnaissance rather than routine activity.
- Port capacity and disruption risk assessment: Hamburg (114.6 million tons, 2025) against a combined 163 million tons moving annually through five other regional ports.
- Indicators to monitor through 2026 and 2027, including Kaliningrad C4ISR and electronic-warfare development, and the effect of sanctions enforcement on maritime behavior.